Altoona, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

596
FXUS61 KCTP 020928
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
428 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Increased cloud cover late today and tonight

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) One more morning of Advisory-level wind chills

2) Light accumulating snow possible late Tuesday afternoon
into Wed (mainly across southern PA)

3) Light accumulating snow is possible again Fri-Sat, followed
by gusty winds and another shot of Arctic air with sub zero wind
chills for the upcoming weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: One more morning of Advisory-level wind chills

Mainly clear skies for the bulk of the region overnight has
resulted in quite cold temperatures in some locations. Pre dawn
readings ranged from the lower single digits above and below
zero across the Northern Tier counties of PA to the lower and
mid teens respectively throughout the Middle and Lower
Susquehanna Valley.

Temperatures will begin to moderate for this Groundhog Day
(Monday), but it will still be cold for this time of year with
highs remaining below the freezing mark in most of central PA.
Be on the lookout for icicles and other large chunks snow and
ice that might fall off rooftops as winds pick up today and
temperatures rise gradually through the upcoming work week.

North/South LLVL ridge axis will drift over the Western Mtns of
PA late today and reach far Eastern PA shortly after midnight.

Weak isentropic upglide from the west in the wake of this ride
axis within the 270-280K theta channel will lead to increasing
layered stratocu and altocu clouds beginning late this
afternoon across the Western Mtns and this evening over Central
and much of Eastern PA. The likelihood of a few kft thick layer
of dry air between the cloud layer will prevent anything more
that flurries or a few brief snow showers. A dusting of snow
should be about the most anyone will see

KEY MESSAGE 2: Light accumulating snow possible late Tuesday
afternoon into Wed (mainly southern PA)

A quick-hitting clipper system will bring accumulating snowfall,
especially across southern PA, Tuesday night Feb 3 into
Wednesday Feb 4. The highest snowfall amounts are expected at
higher elevations in the Laurel Highlands (perhaps 2"+), with a
coating to 2 inches most likely along and south of the PA
Turnpike at this point. Weak forcing and a fast forward speed should
limit the potential for any significant impacts or noteworthy
snowfall totals.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Light accumulating snow is possible again Fri-Sat,
followed by gusty winds and another shot of Arctic air with sub
zero wind chills for the upcoming weekend

By the end of the week, a low pressure system will ride along
the top of the western US ridge and race southeast across the
Great Lakes. This storm will have a strong ridge of high
pressure behind it, ensuring a tight pressure gradient,
reinforcing Arctic air, and strong winds in its wake.
Accumulating snowfall is likely for much of the area, with
highest totals favored in the typical lake effect/upslope
regions of Central PA. Snowfall amounts should remain manageable
based on the anticipated fast forward speed of the storm system,
and ice coverage on the Great Lakes. The bigger story will be
the wind and cold to follow. The Climate Prediction Center
continues to highlight a High Risk for Below Normal
Temperatures and a Moderate Risk of High Winds across
Pennsylvania. This is also supported by the ECMWF Extreme
Forecast Index (EFI), which shows anomalously cold temperatures next
weekend. Single digit (above and below zero) temperatures and
below zero wind chills across much of the region are favored.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Skies are mainly clear this evening across Central PA, but most
guidance does indicate the potential for low clouds to develop
at BFD/JST overnight. While both of those sites potentially see
IFR ceilings, confidence is low on the timing of IFR ceilings and
how long they stick around. BFD is more likely to see
persistent IFR lasting into the morning, while model RH profiles
from the RAP and HRRR suggest there could be enough breaks in
the clouds near JST to allow for periods of VFR through the
night. All other sites should remain VFR with just scattered
clouds around 1000 feet at AOO, UNV, and IPT.

Surface winds will continue to decrease through the rest of the
evening, but winds approximately 2000 feet above the surface
will remain in the 35 to 40 knot range. This may result in a
period of LLWS, particularly at AOO, MDT, and LNS.

Any low clouds dissipate by late morning/early afternoon, giving
way to VFR conditions under scattered high clouds. West-
northwest winds increase to around 10 knots, with a few gusts to
20 knots possible.

Outlook...

Tue...Light SN across N/W PA, with restrictions possible.

Tue PM-Wed AM...Light SN possible S PA, restrictions possible.

Wed PM-Thu...Lingering -SHSN possible across NW PA.

Fri...Light SN overspreads all of central PA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
State College tied the second longest run (7) of consecutive
days with max temp staying <= 20F for the period 1/25 through 1/31).
The last time this occurred was post-Christmas 2017 (12-28-2017
to 01-03-2018). The longest run of 10 days occurred in January
1893 from the 11th-20th. It will be a top 3 coldest last week/7
days of January (mean temp 1/24-1/31) for State College.

January ended up drier and colder than normal for nearly the
entire Commonwealth. It is worth noting that January 2025 was
comparable to January 2026 in terms of temperatures (it was actually
slightly colder last January at Harrisburg, State College, and
Johnstown compared to this year).

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ017-
018-024-033.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Banghoff
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Banghoff
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Banghoff
AVIATION...Bauco/Bowen
CLIMATE...Banghoff